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Evidence standard

A strong backtest is not enough.

Performance disclosure: Historical development, backtest, out-of-sample and simulation results are hypothetical/simulated and do not represent actual trading. Read the full NFA hypothetical performance disclosure.

Development / In-Sample — HYPOTHETICAL

The period available during strategy creation is explicitly identified. Development performance is useful, but it is not independent evidence.

Untouched Out-of-Sample — HYPOTHETICAL

OOS data is deliberately excluded from development. Exact start and end dates are disclosed, and OOS statistics are reported separately.

Frozen Forward Simulation — SIMULATED / HYPOTHETICAL

After the validated parameter set is frozen, the strategy is observed chronologically in simulation. This is not presented as live trading.

Live Evidence — ACTUAL TRADING WHEN EXPLICITLY IDENTIFIED

When live evidence exists, it is shown separately. If it does not exist, the website will say so rather than imply otherwise.

The validation lifecycle

MM Systematic treats validation as a chronological lifecycle: Development → Untouched OOS → Forward SIM → Live → Monitor. Passing a historical test is not the end of validation; released strategies remain subject to Strategy Health governance as new evidence accumulates.

Costs and execution

Commission, slippage and execution assumptions are disclosed where relevant to the validation record.

Core principle

Evidence of survival.

A commercial release must demonstrate more than historical fit. It must survive independent evidence and continue to be monitored after release.

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Risk Disclosure: Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one's financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

NinjaTrader® trademark notice: NinjaTrader® is a registered trademark of NinjaTrader Group, LLC. No NinjaTrader company has any affiliation with the owner, developer, or provider of the products or services described herein, or any interest, ownership or otherwise, in any such product or service, or endorses, recommends or approves any such product or service.